🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Plzen run riot with a 4-1 hammering of FK Jablonec.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Plzen beat FK Jablonec 4-1 at Doosan Aréna, Championship Round - 5, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.72 xG and FK Jablonec 1.25 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Plzen beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.37 / defence 1.06 against FK Jablonec attack 0.98 / defence 0.93, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Plzen 48% | Draw 24% | FK Jablonec 28%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 58%, FK Jablonec 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Plzen's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

FK Jablonec's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.51. That form edge translated into the three points. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.38 average — above their attacking norm. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights