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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Plzen run riot with a 7-2 hammering of České Budějovice.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Plzen beat České Budějovice 7-2 at Doosan Aréna, Regular Season - 19, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 2.96 xG and České Budějovice 0.71 xG, a combined 3.67. The scoreboard read 7-2 for 9 actual goals. Plzen beat their projection by 4.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. České Budějovice outscored their 0.71 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.22 / defence 0.78 against České Budějovice attack 0.76 / defence 1.63, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Plzen 82% | Draw 12% | České Budějovice 6%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 82%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 57%, České Budějovice 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Plzen's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

České Budějovice's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 0.68. That form edge translated into the three points. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 7 against a 2.35 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. České Budějovice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 7 against a 2.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights