🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Plzen cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Dukla Praha.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Plzen beat Dukla Praha 2-0 at Doosan Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.79 xG and Dukla Praha 1.10 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Dukla Praha landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.20 / defence 1.17 against Dukla Praha attack 0.72 / defence 1.09, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Plzen 53% | Draw 25% | Dukla Praha 22%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 55%, Dukla Praha 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Plzen's trading profile (53 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Dukla Praha's trading profile (53 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 0.89. That form edge translated into the three points. Plzen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights