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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Plzen cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Dukla Praha.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Plzen beat Dukla Praha 4-2 at Doosan Aréna, Regular Season - 30, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.57 xG and Dukla Praha 0.78 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Plzen beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dukla Praha outscored their 0.78 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.26 / defence 0.97 against Dukla Praha attack 0.67 / defence 0.93, drawn from 59/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Plzen 55% | Draw 27% | Dukla Praha 17%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 48%, Dukla Praha 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Plzen's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Dukla Praha's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 0.83. Form held, and they took the win. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.21 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights