Plzen 1-2 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Baník Ostrava at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Plzen vs Baník Ostrava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Baník Ostrava make the trip to Doosan Aréna to face Plzen in Czech Liga, Championship Round - 3. The match kicks off on Sunday 11 May 2025 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Plzen's overall Czech Liga record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Doosan Aréna, Plzen have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Baník Ostrava have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: D W W L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Baník Ostrava's away record: 7W 1D 2L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 2.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Plzen lead 4W to 2W over the last 7 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2025, ended 0–1 with Baník Ostrava winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Plzen half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Baník Ostrava half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 55% versus Baník Ostrava 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 57% | Baník Ostrava 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.45 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.395 / defence 1.066 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.162 / defence 0.763. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.203. Plzen carry an above-average attack strength of 1.395 — their λ of 1.45 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Baník Ostrava's defence strength of 0.763 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 60 Plzen games / 60 Baník Ostrava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 37% | Draw 25% | Baník Ostrava 39%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 2.70 | Draw 4.00 | Baník Ostrava 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Baník Ostrava are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Baník Ostrava if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral: Plzen 60% | Baník Ostrava 40%.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Championship Round - 3 | Venue: Doosan Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 11 May 2025, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 37% | Draw 25% | Baník Ostrava 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Plzen 1.45 / Baník Ostrava 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.395 / def 1.066 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.162 / def 0.763 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Baník Ostrava xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Plzen vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 11 May 2025 at Doosan Aréna.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Baník Ostrava?
Plzen 1 - 2 Baník Ostrava.
Where is Plzen vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Aréna.
What competition is Plzen vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Plzen vs Baník Ostrava is a Championship Round - 3 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 37% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Plzen and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Baník Ostrava?
Record (7 meetings): Plzen 4W | Draws 1 | Baník Ostrava 2W.
What form are Plzen and Baník Ostrava in?
Plzen (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Baník Ostrava (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Plzen's attacking strength (1.40x league average) is weighed against Baník Ostrava's defensive record (0.76x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. Flip it around — Baník Ostrava's attack (1.16x) against Plzen's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
37%
2.74
25%
4.01
39%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Plzen xG
Total xG
2.94
1.49
Baník Ostrava xG
2.74
37%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
2.60
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
23%
4.44
24%
4.24
Win to Nil
8%
12.15
9%
11.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.9 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.4 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.3 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Plzen and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Plzen and 1.49 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 67 outings, Plzen have picked up 2.06 PPG on a 42W 12D 13L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Baník Ostrava's form line: 34W 12D 21L from 67 games, 1.70 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.06 PPG for Plzen against 1.70 for Baník Ostrava. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Plzen have posted 2.30 PPG from 33 outings (24W 4D 5L).
On the road, Baník Ostrava have gone 16W 5D 12L from 33 away games — 1.61 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Plzen are averaging 2.09 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.63 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Current Season
Baník Ostrava
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 42W 12D 13L in their last 67 games (2.06 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 34W 12D 21L in their last 67 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Plzen's home record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 2.30 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Plzen or Baník Ostrava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Baník Ostrava in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Plzen have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Plzen have gone 3W 1D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Baník Ostrava — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Plzen
1
Draws
3
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Baník Ostrava?
From 10 meetings on record, Plzen have won 6, Baník Ostrava have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Baník Ostrava 0-1 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Baník Ostrava?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 52%, Baník Ostrava 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Plzen) and 58% (Baník Ostrava). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Baník Ostrava in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play Baník Ostrava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Plzen's recent matches and 52% of Baník Ostrava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plzen vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Plzen's matches and 58% of Baník Ostrava's.
Do Plzen and Baník Ostrava tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Baník Ostrava in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Baník Ostrava edge out Plzen 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baník Ostrava beat Plzen 1-2 at Doosan Aréna, Championship Round - 3, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.45 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.49 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.40 / defence 1.07 against Baník Ostrava attack 1.16 / defence 0.76, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 37% | Draw 25% | Baník Ostrava 39%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 57%, Baník Ostrava 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Plzen 2.06 PPG, Baník Ostrava 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Baník Ostrava win broke the near-deadlock. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.42 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.