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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Plzen cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Baník Ostrava.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Plzen beat Baník Ostrava 2-0 at Doosan Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.12 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.01 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Plzen beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Baník Ostrava landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.13 / defence 1.06 against Baník Ostrava attack 0.82 / defence 0.85, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Plzen 34% | Draw 38% | Baník Ostrava 28%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Plzen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 51%, Baník Ostrava 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Plzen's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Baník Ostrava's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Plzen 1.98 PPG, Baník Ostrava 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Plzen win broke the near-deadlock. Plzen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights