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Prediction vindicated as Baník Ostrava edge out Plzen 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Baník Ostrava beat Plzen 1-2 at Doosan Aréna, Championship Round - 3, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.45 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.49 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.40 / defence 1.07 against Baník Ostrava attack 1.16 / defence 0.76, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Plzen 37% | Draw 25% | Baník Ostrava 39%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 57%, Baník Ostrava 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Plzen's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Baník Ostrava's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Plzen 2.06 PPG, Baník Ostrava 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Baník Ostrava win broke the near-deadlock. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.42 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights