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Prediction vindicated as Baník Ostrava edge out Plzen 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Baník Ostrava beat Plzen 0-1 at Doosan Aréna, Regular Season - 26, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.53 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.62 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Plzen fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.42 / defence 1.16 against Baník Ostrava attack 1.24 / defence 0.77, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Plzen 35% | Draw 25% | Baník Ostrava 39%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 57%, Baník Ostrava 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Plzen's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Baník Ostrava's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Plzen 2.05 PPG, Baník Ostrava 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Baník Ostrava win broke the near-deadlock. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.43 scoring average — below par going forward. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights