Pardubice 2-0 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pardubice at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pardubice vs Zlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Relegation Round - 1 sees Zlin travel to CFIG Arena to take on Pardubice. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 May 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pardubice stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pardubice have posted 1W 4D 5L at CFIG Arena — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Zlin have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Zlin have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Pardubice at 0.60 PPG versus Zlin's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
Zlin have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 7 encounters against Pardubice's 1 victories.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Zlin have won 4 of 7 previous encounters, and at 2.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Pardubice in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Zlin in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 49% versus Zlin 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 43% | Zlin 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.32 xG and Zlin 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.764 / defence 1.042 | Zlin attack 0.851 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.289. Pardubice's attack strength of 0.764 is below the league average — the 1.32 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 60 Pardubice games / 60 Zlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 39% | Draw 30% | Zlin 31%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Zlin 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pardubice are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pardubice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Pardubice 70% | Zlin 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 1 | Venue: CFIG Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 39% | Draw 30% | Zlin 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Pardubice 1.32 / Zlin 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.764 / def 1.042 | Zlin attack 0.851 / def 1.129 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Pardubice (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Zlin xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Zlin kick off?
Pardubice vs Zlin kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 4 May 2024 at CFIG Arena.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Zlin?
Pardubice 2 - 0 Zlin.
Where is Pardubice vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at CFIG Arena.
What competition is Pardubice vs Zlin part of?
Pardubice vs Zlin is a Relegation Round - 1 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 39% chance of winning, Zlin a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Pardubice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Pardubice and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Zlin?
Record (7 meetings): Pardubice 1W | Draws 2 | Zlin 4W.
What form are Pardubice and Zlin in?
Pardubice (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. Zlin (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Pardubice's attack at 0.76x the league average against Zlin's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Zlin's attack versus Pardubice's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pardubice Win
39%
2.54
30%
3.37
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.46
1.14
Zlin xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
13%
7.95
8%
12.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.9 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.14 for Zlin, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Zlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pardubice come into this having played 67 games, going 19W 12D 36L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-L.
On the other side, Zlin sit at 0.94 PPG from 67 outings (13W 24D 30L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pardubice on 1.03 PPG, Zlin on 0.94. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Pardubice's home form reads 9W 8D 16L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.06 PPG return.
Away from home, Zlin have taken 0.58 points per game from 33 outings (2W 13D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pardubice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pardubice are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.19 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zlin in 63%.
Last 67 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Current Season
Zlin
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Zlin in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 19W 12D 36L in their last 67 games (1.03 PPG), while Zlin have gone 13W 24D 30L in their last 67 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Zlin away?
Pardubice's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.06 PPG; Zlin away: 0.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Mar 2022, when Zlin won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pardubice's record when hosting Zlin specifically: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Pardubice
3
Draws
4
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Zlin?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 3, Zlin have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Pardubice 3-1 Zlin.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Zlin?
Zlin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 48%, Zlin 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Pardubice) and 58% (Zlin).
On the defensive side: Pardubice have failed to score in 39% of games; Zlin in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Zlin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Pardubice's recent matches and 54% of Zlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pardubice vs Zlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Pardubice's recent games and 58% of Zlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Zlin tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Zlin in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pardubice cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Zlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pardubice beat Zlin 2-0 at CFIG Arena, Relegation Round - 1, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.32 xG and Zlin 1.14 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Zlin landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.76 / defence 1.04 against Zlin attack 0.85 / defence 1.13, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 39% | Draw 30% | Zlin 31%, with Pardubice to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 43%, Zlin 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Zlin's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pardubice 1.03 PPG, Zlin 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pardubice win broke the near-deadlock. Pardubice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Zlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.