Pardubice vs Sparta Praha Prediction & Preview
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Poisson rates Sparta Praha at 38% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pardubice vs Sparta Praha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sparta Praha make the trip to Stadion Arnosta Kostala to face Pardubice in Czech Liga (matchday 24). The match kicks off on Saturday 6 March 2027 at 14:00 UK time.
Current Form
Pardubice's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Pardubice have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sparta Praha have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D W D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Sparta Praha away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Pardubice against 1.80 for Sparta Praha. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head sample leans to Sparta Praha, who have 9 wins from 10 H2H matches compared to 1 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.1 per game across the 10 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 11 Oct 2026, ended Pardubice 0–2 Sparta Praha — a Sparta Praha win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Sparta Praha have won 9 of 10 H2H matches, and at 4.1 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Pardubice — key trading statistics (last 46 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Sparta Praha — key trading statistics (last 46 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 70% versus Sparta Praha 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 59% | Sparta Praha 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.06 xG and Sparta Praha 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 1.020 / defence 1.042 | Sparta Praha attack 0.919 / defence 0.759. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.292. Sparta Praha bring a tight defence (rating 0.759, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Pardubice's projected output down. Data: built from Pardubice's last 44 games and Sparta Praha's last 44.
Result probabilities: Pardubice 29% | Draw 34% | Sparta Praha 38%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 3.48 | Draw 2.97 | Sparta Praha 2.66. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sparta Praha are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Sparta Praha 9 wins from 10 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 60% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.1 goals per game across 10 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Pardubice 80% (last 10 home games) | Sparta Praha 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Sparta Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 24 | Venue: Stadion Arnosta Kostala • Kick-off: Saturday 6 March 2027 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 29% | Draw 34% | Sparta Praha 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Pardubice 1.06 / Sparta Praha 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 1.020 / def 1.042 | Sparta Praha attack 0.919 / def 0.759 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Sparta Praha xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pardubice vs Sparta Praha FAQs
What time does Pardubice vs Sparta Praha kick off?
Pardubice vs Sparta Praha is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 6 March 2027 at Stadion Arnosta Kostala.
Where is Pardubice vs Sparta Praha being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Arnosta Kostala.
What competition is Pardubice vs Sparta Praha part of?
Pardubice vs Sparta Praha is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 24) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Sparta Praha?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 29% chance of winning, Sparta Praha a 38% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Sparta Praha?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Pardubice and Sparta Praha will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Pardubice vs Sparta Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Pardubice's attack at 1.02x the league average against Sparta Praha's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sparta Praha's attack (0.92x) against Pardubice's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from Pardubice's last 44 games and Sparta Praha's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
29%
3.48
34%
2.97
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.29
1.24
Sparta Praha xG
3.48
29%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
8%
12.00
13%
7.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 12.5 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pardubice vs Sparta Praha Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Sparta Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Sparta Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.24 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Sparta Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 46 outings, Pardubice have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 17W 10D 19L record — L-W-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Sparta Praha's form line: 28W 9D 9L from 46 games, 2.02 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-D.
Put side by side, Sparta Praha are the form team by 0.69 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pardubice.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Pardubice have posted 1.23 PPG from their last 22 home games (7W 6D 9L).
On the road, Sparta Praha have gone 10W 5D 7L from their last 22 away games — 1.59 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.02 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sparta Praha's recent record.
Attack vs Defence
Pardubice are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Sparta Praha are on 1.91 scored and 0.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pardubice have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sparta Praha in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Blended
Sparta Praha
Blended
Pardubice (Home) vs Sparta Praha (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pardubice
Blended
Sparta Praha
Blended
❓ Pardubice vs Sparta Praha Form FAQs
What form are Pardubice and Sparta Praha in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 17W 10D 19L in their last 46 games (1.33 PPG), while Sparta Praha have gone 28W 9D 9L in their last 46 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Sparta Praha away?
Sparta Praha's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.23 PPG; Sparta Praha away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Pardubice or Sparta Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pardubice have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Sparta Praha in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Pardubice and Sparta Praha, the earliest from March 2022. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won Sparta Praha 5-2 Pardubice on 15 Oct 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pardubice have gone 0W 0D 4L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sparta Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Pardubice
0
Draws
9
Sparta Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Pardubice vs Sparta Praha H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Sparta Praha?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Pardubice have won 1, Sparta Praha have won 9, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Sparta Praha last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Sparta Praha 2-0 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Sparta Praha?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Sparta Praha see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 73%, Sparta Praha 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Pardubice) and 50% (Sparta Praha).
On the defensive side: Sparta Praha in 59%; Sparta Praha in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Sparta Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pardubice vs Sparta Praha Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pardubice and Sparta Praha matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 73% of Pardubice's recent matches and 32% of Sparta Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Pardubice and Sparta Praha matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Pardubice's recent games and 50% of Sparta Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Sparta Praha matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Pardubice's recent matches and 59% of Sparta Praha's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.