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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sparta Praha cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Pardubice.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sparta Praha beat Pardubice 1-3 at Stadion Arnosta Kostala, Regular Season - 3, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.08 xG and Sparta Praha 1.78 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sparta Praha outscored their 1.78 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.90 / defence 1.33 against Sparta Praha attack 1.05 / defence 0.91, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Pardubice 22% | Draw 25% | Sparta Praha 53%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 43%, Sparta Praha 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pardubice's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did.

Sparta Praha's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 0.76. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Pardubice (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights