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Dominant Slovan Liberec run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Pardubice.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slovan Liberec beat Pardubice 0-4 at Stadion Arnosta Kostala, Regular Season - 16, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.10 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.78 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Pardubice fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Slovan Liberec outscored their 1.78 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.91 / defence 1.14 against Slovan Liberec attack 1.26 / defence 0.96, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pardubice 21% | Draw 28% | Slovan Liberec 51%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 43%, Slovan Liberec 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pardubice's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Slovan Liberec's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Slovan Liberec arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.79. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Pardubice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights