Pardubice vs Slovácko – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pardubice at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pardubice vs Slovácko fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Slovácko travel to Stadion Arnosta Kostala to take on Pardubice. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 February 2027, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pardubice stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Arnosta Kostala, Pardubice have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slovácko have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Slovácko, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovácko's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Pardubice) versus 0.70 (Slovácko). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Pardubice register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Slovácko in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The previous 10 encounters between these sides heavily favour Slovácko, who boast 5 victories compared to 2 for Pardubice.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 10 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 5 Sep 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Slovácko have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Pardubice in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Slovácko in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 71% versus Slovácko 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 56% | Slovácko 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.46 xG and Slovácko 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.860 / defence 1.110 | Slovácko attack 0.775 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.231. Data: 39 Pardubice games / 39 Slovácko games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 45% | Draw 29% | Slovácko 26%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Slovácko 3.85. Pardubice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pardubice are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pardubice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pardubice 80% | Slovácko 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadion Arnosta Kostala • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 45% | Draw 29% | Slovácko 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Pardubice 1.46 / Slovácko 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.860 / def 1.110 | Slovácko attack 0.775 / def 1.141 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Pardubice (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Slovácko xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Slovácko kick off?
Pardubice vs Slovácko is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Stadion Arnosta Kostala.
Where is Pardubice vs Slovácko being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Arnosta Kostala.
What competition is Pardubice vs Slovácko part of?
Pardubice vs Slovácko is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 45% chance of winning, Slovácko a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Pardubice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Pardubice and Slovácko will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Slovácko?
Record (10 meetings): Pardubice 2W | Draws 3 | Slovácko 5W.
What form are Pardubice and Slovácko in?
Pardubice (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Slovácko (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Pardubice's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Slovácko's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. The same calculation in reverse, Slovácko's attack versus Pardubice's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pardubice Win
45%
2.24
29%
3.40
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.52
1.06
Slovácko xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
23%
4.29
Win to Nil
15%
6.46
6%
16.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.5 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.06 for Slovácko, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Slovácko?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pardubice's recent record stands at 14W 10D 17L from 41 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slovácko, meanwhile, have gone 8W 11D 22L across 41 games — 0.85 PPG, with L-D-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Slovácko is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pardubice by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Slovácko heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Pardubice have managed 6W 6D 8L from 20 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Slovácko's away record stands at 3W 5D 12L across 20 trips, a 0.70 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pardubice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pardubice are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Slovácko are on 0.98 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pardubice have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Blended
Slovácko
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Slovácko in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 14W 10D 17L in their last 41 games (1.27 PPG), while Slovácko have gone 8W 11D 22L in their last 41 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Slovácko away?
Pardubice's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.20 PPG; Slovácko away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Pardubice's record when hosting Slovácko specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Pardubice
3
Draws
5
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Slovácko?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 2, Slovácko have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Slovácko last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Slovácko 0-0 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Slovácko?
Slovácko have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 75%, Slovácko 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Pardubice) and 40% (Slovácko).
On the defensive side: Slovácko in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Slovácko?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Pardubice's games and 45% of Slovácko's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pardubice vs Slovácko usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Pardubice's recent games and 40% of Slovácko's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Slovácko tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Slovácko in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.