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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Pardubice and Slovácko share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pardubice and Slovácko finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Arnosta Kostala, Regular Season - 9, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.29 xG and Slovácko 1.16 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.88 / defence 1.31 against Slovácko attack 0.73 / defence 1.05, drawn from 37/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pardubice 39% | Draw 28% | Slovácko 33%, with Pardubice to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 44%, Slovácko 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pardubice's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Slovácko's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pardubice 0.70 PPG, Slovácko 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Slovácko (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights