Pardubice vs Sigma Olomouc – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sigma Olomouc (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Pardubice face Sigma Olomouc.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Arnosta Kostala plays host to Pardubice versus Sigma Olomouc in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Saturday 30 January 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Pardubice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pardubice have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stadion Arnosta Kostala — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sigma Olomouc (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sigma Olomouc have gone 6W 0D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Sigma Olomouc are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Pardubice register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Sigma Olomouc in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Across the last 10 meetings, Sigma Olomouc have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to Pardubice's 2, with 3 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 10 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2026, ended 1–3 with Sigma Olomouc winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sigma Olomouc have won 5 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Pardubice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Sigma Olomouc goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pardubice 70% and Sigma Olomouc 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 55% | Sigma Olomouc 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.25 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.795 / defence 1.136 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.060 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.479 / away 1.262. Pardubice's attack strength of 0.795 is below the league average — the 1.25 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 38 Pardubice games / 38 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 30% | Draw 27% | Sigma Olomouc 43%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | Sigma Olomouc 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Pardubice 70% | Sigma Olomouc 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadion Arnosta Kostala • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jan 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 30% | Draw 27% | Sigma Olomouc 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Pardubice 1.25 / Sigma Olomouc 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.795 / def 1.136 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.060 / def 1.059 | league avg home 1.479 / away 1.262 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Sigma Olomouc xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Pardubice vs Sigma Olomouc is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 30 January 2027 at Stadion Arnosta Kostala.
Where is Pardubice vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Arnosta Kostala.
What competition is Pardubice vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Pardubice vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 30% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Pardubice and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Sigma Olomouc?
Record (10 meetings): Pardubice 2W | Draws 3 | Sigma Olomouc 5W.
What form are Pardubice and Sigma Olomouc in?
Pardubice (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Pardubice's attack at 0.80x the league average against Sigma Olomouc's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sigma Olomouc's attack (1.06x) against Pardubice's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
30%
3.31
27%
3.69
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.77
1.52
Sigma Olomouc xG
3.31
30%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
22%
4.57
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
7%
15.13
12%
8.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.6 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.9 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.4 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.52 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pardubice's recent record stands at 13W 10D 17L from 40 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sigma Olomouc, meanwhile, have gone 19W 7D 14L across 40 games — 1.60 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Pardubice against 1.60 for Sigma Olomouc. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Pardubice have managed 5W 6D 8L from 19 games — 1.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sigma Olomouc's away record stands at 8W 3D 8L across 19 trips, a 1.42 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pardubice are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.50 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pardubice have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 13W 10D 17L in their last 40 games (1.23 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 19W 7D 14L in their last 40 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Sigma Olomouc's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.11 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sigma Olomouc won 1-5 on 27 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pardubice have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Pardubice
3
Draws
5
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Sigma Olomouc?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 2, Sigma Olomouc have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 3-1 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Sigma Olomouc?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 74% for Pardubice, 74% for Sigma Olomouc — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 47% for Pardubice and 74% for Sigma Olomouc. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Sigma Olomouc?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Pardubice's games and 74% of Sigma Olomouc's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pardubice vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Pardubice's matches and 74% of Sigma Olomouc's.
Do Pardubice and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.