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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Pardubice and Sigma Olomouc share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at CFIG Arena, Regular Season - 8, as Pardubice and Sigma Olomouc drew 2-2 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.08 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.01 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Pardubice beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sigma Olomouc outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.74 / defence 0.92 against Sigma Olomouc attack 0.94 / defence 0.97, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pardubice 34% | Draw 35% | Sigma Olomouc 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 42%, Sigma Olomouc 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pardubice's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pardubice 1.06 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Pardubice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights