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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Plzen run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Pardubice.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Plzen beat Pardubice 1-5 at Stadion Arnosta Kostala, Regular Season - 1, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.12 xG and Plzen 1.34 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Plzen outscored their 1.34 projection by 3.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.89 / defence 1.00 against Plzen attack 1.12 / defence 0.91, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pardubice 31% | Draw 27% | Plzen 42%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 40%, Plzen 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pardubice's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did.

Plzen's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 0.80. Form held, and they took the win. Pardubice (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights