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Shock result as Pardubice defy the odds to beat Mlada Boleslav 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pardubice beat Mlada Boleslav 2-1 at Stadion Arnosta Kostala, Regular Season - 12, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.49 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.64 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.90 / defence 1.18 against Mlada Boleslav attack 1.13 / defence 1.29, drawn from 41/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pardubice 33% | Draw 28% | Mlada Boleslav 39%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Pardubice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 42%, Mlada Boleslav 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pardubice's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Mlada Boleslav arrived the stronger side — 1.11 PPG against 0.71. Form was overturned, with Pardubice winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Pardubice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights