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Shock result as Pardubice defy the odds to beat Mlada Boleslav 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pardubice beat Mlada Boleslav 2-1 at CFIG Arena, Relegation Round - 4, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.16 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.18 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Pardubice beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.78 / defence 1.00 against Mlada Boleslav attack 0.98 / defence 1.09, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pardubice 35% | Draw 28% | Mlada Boleslav 36%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Pardubice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 40%, Mlada Boleslav 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pardubice's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.

Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pardubice 0.91 PPG, Mlada Boleslav 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pardubice win broke the near-deadlock. Pardubice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights