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Dominant Mlada Boleslav run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Pardubice.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mlada Boleslav beat Pardubice 0-3 at CFIG Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.18 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.27 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Pardubice fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Mlada Boleslav outscored their 1.27 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.78 / defence 1.02 against Mlada Boleslav attack 1.03 / defence 0.98, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pardubice 34% | Draw 27% | Mlada Boleslav 39%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 42%, Mlada Boleslav 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pardubice's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Mlada Boleslav arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.96. Form held, and they took the win. Pardubice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights