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Poisson model favours Pardubice (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Pardubice face Karviná.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Pardubice and Karviná meet at Stadion Arnosta Kostala in Czech Liga, Semi-finals. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Current Form

Pardubice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Pardubice's home record at Stadion Arnosta Kostala: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Karviná have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Karviná's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The form ledger tips toward Pardubice. A 1.20 PPG lead over Karviná (1.90 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record favours Pardubice, who have won 7 of the last 9 meetings against Karviná — a 0D 2W return for the visitors.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 2–1 with Pardubice winning.

The historical record gives Pardubice a meaningful edge here — 7 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading

Pardubice half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

Karviná half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 49% versus Karviná 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 44% | Karviná 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.50 xG and Karviná 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.984 / defence 1.038 | Karviná attack 1.027 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.200. Data: 60 Pardubice games / 60 Karviná games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Pardubice 41% | Draw 27% | Karviná 31%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Karviná 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Pardubice are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pardubice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pardubice 70% | Karviná 50% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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