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Shock result as Pardubice defy the odds to beat Karviná 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pardubice beat Karviná 2-1 at Stadion Arnosta Kostala, Regular Season - 11, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.21 xG and Karviná 1.75 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.81 / defence 1.23 against Karviná attack 1.15 / defence 1.17, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pardubice 25% | Draw 26% | Karviná 49%, with Karviná to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Pardubice win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 40%, Karviná 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pardubice's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Karviná's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Karviná arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.69. Form was overturned, with Pardubice winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Pardubice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights