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Shock result as Pardubice defy the odds to beat Hradec Králové 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pardubice beat Hradec Králové 1-0 at Stadion Arnosta Kostala, Regular Season - 18, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.37 xG and Hradec Králové 2.04 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hradec Králové landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.81 / defence 1.30 against Hradec Králové attack 1.25 / defence 1.23, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pardubice 25% | Draw 23% | Hradec Králové 52%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Pardubice win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 45%, Hradec Králové 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pardubice's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.

Hradec Králové's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Hradec Králové arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.78. Form was overturned, with Pardubice winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Pardubice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights