Pardubice 2-1 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Pardubice take on Hradec Králové.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Hradec Králové travel to CFIG Arena to take on Pardubice. The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 August 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Pardubice have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Pardubice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pardubice at CFIG Arena this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Hradec Králové — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Hradec Králové have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Hradec Králové have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Hradec Králové are 0.60 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Pardubice have won 2, Hradec Králové 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2024, ended 0–2 with Hradec Králové winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Pardubice trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Hradec Králové trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 45% versus Hradec Králové 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Pardubice 42% | Hradec Králové 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 0.77 xG and Hradec Králové 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.655 / defence 0.997 | Hradec Králové attack 0.741 / defence 0.819. League average goals — home 1.427 / away 1.120. Pardubice's attack strength of 0.655 is below the league average — the 0.77 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 35 Pardubice games / 35 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 31% | Draw 35% | Hradec Králové 34%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 3.23 | Draw 2.86 | Hradec Králové 2.94. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 21% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.59. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 79% probability — total xG of 1.59 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Pardubice's lower xG of 0.77 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 21% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 30%. Form rates corroborate: Pardubice 50% | Hradec Králové 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: CFIG Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Aug 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 31% | Draw 35% | Hradec Králové 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 21% | BTTS 30% | xG Pardubice 0.77 / Hradec Králové 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.655 / def 0.997 | Hradec Králové attack 0.741 / def 0.819 | league avg home 1.427 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Hradec Králové xG
30%
BTTS
47%
Over 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Pardubice vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 24 August 2024 at CFIG Arena.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Hradec Králové?
Pardubice 2 - 1 Hradec Králové.
Where is Pardubice vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at CFIG Arena.
What competition is Pardubice vs Hradec Králové part of?
Pardubice vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 31% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 34% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both Pardubice and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 21%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Hradec Králové?
Record (5 meetings): Pardubice 2W | Draws 2 | Hradec Králové 1W.
What form are Pardubice and Hradec Králové in?
Pardubice (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Hradec Králové (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Pardubice's attacking strength (0.66x league average) is weighed against Hradec Králové's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.77. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Pardubice's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 22.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.2%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.28
35%
2.82
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.8%
Away win
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Pardubice xG
Total xG
1.59
0.83
Hradec Králové xG
3.28
31%
Home win
2.82
35%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
47%
Over 1.5
2.13
53%
Under 1.5
1.89
21%
Over 2.5
4.76
79%
Under 2.5
1.27
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.32
70%
BTTS No
1.43
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
47%
2.15
Win to Nil
13%
7.50
16%
6.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.3 | 16.8 | 7.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.6 | 12.9 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.0%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Pardubice and 0.83 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 1.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 40 outings, Pardubice have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 12W 7D 21L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Pardubice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hradec Králové's form line: 16W 10D 14L from 40 games, 1.45 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Hradec Králové, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pardubice on 1.08 PPG, Hradec Králové on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Pardubice have posted 1.00 PPG from 20 outings (5W 5D 10L).
On the road, Hradec Králové have gone 4W 6D 10L from 20 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.45 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hradec Králové's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Pardubice are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.15 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Hradec Králové in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Early Season
Hradec Králové
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 12W 7D 21L in their last 40 games (1.08 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 16W 10D 14L in their last 40 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Hradec Králové away?
Pardubice's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.00 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Pardubice or Hradec Králové been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pardubice have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Hradec Králové in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Feb 2025, when Hradec Králové won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pardubice's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Pardubice
3
Draws
3
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 4, Hradec Králové have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Hradec Králové 2-1 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Hradec Králové?
Pardubice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Hradec Králové see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 45%, Hradec Králové 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 30% for Pardubice and 30% for Hradec Králové.
On the defensive side: Pardubice have failed to score in 40% of games; Hradec Králové in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Hradec Králové?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Pardubice's recent matches and 40% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pardubice vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Pardubice's recent games and 30% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pardubice defy the odds to beat Hradec Králové 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pardubice beat Hradec Králové 2-1 at CFIG Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 0.77 xG and Hradec Králové 0.83 xG, a combined 1.59. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Pardubice beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.66 / defence 1.00 against Hradec Králové attack 0.74 / defence 0.82, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 31% | Draw 35% | Hradec Králové 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Pardubice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 47% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 42%, Hradec Králové 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pardubice 1.08 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pardubice win broke the near-deadlock. Pardubice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.