Pardubice 1-1 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pardubice at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pardubice vs FK Jablonec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Ďolíček plays host to Pardubice versus FK Jablonec in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Sunday 3 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Pardubice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pardubice's home record at Stadion Ďolíček: 0W 5D 5L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
FK Jablonec (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FK Jablonec have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Pardubice half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
FK Jablonec half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 65% versus FK Jablonec 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 73% | FK Jablonec 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.27 xG and FK Jablonec 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.817 / defence 1.450 | FK Jablonec attack 0.685 / defence 1.404. League average goals — home 1.108 / away 1.156. FK Jablonec bring a strong defensive rating of 1.404 — this is suppressing Pardubice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Pardubice games / 26 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 39% | Draw 27% | FK Jablonec 33%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | FK Jablonec 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Pardubice as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pardubice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Pardubice 40% | FK Jablonec 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 39% | Draw 27% | FK Jablonec 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Pardubice 1.27 / FK Jablonec 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.817 / def 1.450 | FK Jablonec attack 0.685 / def 1.404 | league avg home 1.108 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Pardubice (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.15
FK Jablonec xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Pardubice vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 3 April 2022 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs FK Jablonec?
Pardubice 1 - 1 FK Jablonec.
Where is Pardubice vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Pardubice vs FK Jablonec part of?
Pardubice vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 39% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Pardubice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Pardubice and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and FK Jablonec?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pardubice and FK Jablonec in?
Pardubice (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. FK Jablonec (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Pardubice's attack rating (0.82) and FK Jablonec's defence rating (1.40), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FK Jablonec's attack (0.69x) against Pardubice's defence (1.45x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pardubice Win
39%
2.55
27%
3.64
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.42
1.15
FK Jablonec xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
12%
8.04
9%
10.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 10.2 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.0 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Pardubice and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.15 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs FK Jablonec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pardubice come into this having played 26 games, going 4W 8D 14L for 0.77 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FK Jablonec sit at 0.92 PPG from 26 outings (4W 12D 10L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.77 PPG for Pardubice against 0.92 for FK Jablonec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Pardubice's home form reads 1W 7D 5L across 13 games on their own ground, a 0.77 PPG return.
Away from home, FK Jablonec have taken 0.62 points per game from 13 outings (1W 5D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pardubice are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 2.27 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 0.73 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pardubice have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 26 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Blended
FK Jablonec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 4W 8D 14L in their last 26 games (0.77 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 4W 12D 10L in their last 26 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or FK Jablonec away?
Pardubice's home record (0.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 0.77 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
FK Jablonec go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FK Jablonec won 3-0 on 16 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pardubice have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FK Jablonec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Pardubice
1
Draws
7
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and FK Jablonec?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 2, FK Jablonec have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Pardubice 0-2 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and FK Jablonec?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 46%, FK Jablonec 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Pardubice) and 54% (FK Jablonec). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pardubice keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Pardubice have failed to score in 46% of games; FK Jablonec in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play FK Jablonec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Pardubice's recent matches and 46% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pardubice vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Pardubice's matches and 54% of FK Jablonec's.
Do Pardubice and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pardubice and FK Jablonec share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 27, as Pardubice and FK Jablonec drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.27 xG and FK Jablonec 1.15 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.82 / defence 1.45 against FK Jablonec attack 0.69 / defence 1.40, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 39% | Draw 27% | FK Jablonec 33%, with Pardubice to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 73%, FK Jablonec 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pardubice 0.77 PPG, FK Jablonec 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Pardubice (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.