Pardubice 0-2 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Pardubice at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pardubice vs FK Jablonec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Arnosta Kostala plays host to Pardubice versus FK Jablonec in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Sunday 2 August 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Pardubice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Pardubice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pardubice's home record at Stadion Arnosta Kostala: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FK Jablonec (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FK Jablonec have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, FK Jablonec have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Pardubice's 1.90 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of FK Jablonec's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
FK Jablonec hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 6 wins from 9 meetings. The hosts have won just 2 times in that span.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Feb 2026, ended 0–2 with FK Jablonec winning.
It is worth noting that FK Jablonec have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Pardubice half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
FK Jablonec half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 70% versus FK Jablonec 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 54% | FK Jablonec 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.50 xG and FK Jablonec 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 1.004 / defence 0.985 | FK Jablonec attack 0.991 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.362. Data: 31 Pardubice games / 31 FK Jablonec games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Pardubice 41% | Draw 26% | FK Jablonec 33%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | FK Jablonec 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
FK Jablonec lead the H2H ledger, but Pardubice carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Pardubice as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pardubice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Pardubice 70% | FK Jablonec 30%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadion Arnosta Kostala • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 41% | Draw 26% | FK Jablonec 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Pardubice 1.50 / FK Jablonec 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 1.004 / def 0.985 | FK Jablonec attack 0.991 / def 1.012 | league avg home 1.473 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: Pardubice (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.33
FK Jablonec xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Pardubice vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 2 August 2026 at Stadion Arnosta Kostala.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs FK Jablonec?
Pardubice 0 - 2 FK Jablonec.
Where is Pardubice vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Arnosta Kostala.
What competition is Pardubice vs FK Jablonec part of?
Pardubice vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 41% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Pardubice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Pardubice and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and FK Jablonec?
Record (9 meetings): Pardubice 2W | Draws 1 | FK Jablonec 6W.
What form are Pardubice and FK Jablonec in?
Pardubice (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. FK Jablonec (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Pardubice's attack rating (1.00) and FK Jablonec's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FK Jablonec's attack (0.99x) against Pardubice's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pardubice Win
41%
2.47
26%
3.80
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.83
1.33
FK Jablonec xG
2.47
41%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
11%
9.34
7%
13.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.8 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Pardubice and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.33 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs FK Jablonec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pardubice come into this having played 33 games, going 12W 8D 13L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Pardubice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FK Jablonec sit at 1.61 PPG from 33 outings (16W 5D 12L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for FK Jablonec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Pardubice against 1.61 for FK Jablonec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Pardubice's home form reads 5W 5D 6L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, FK Jablonec have taken 1.31 points per game from 16 outings (7W 0D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pardubice are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 1.30 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pardubice have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Defensively: FK Jablonec in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Early Season
FK Jablonec
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 12W 8D 13L in their last 33 games (1.33 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 16W 5D 12L in their last 33 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or FK Jablonec away?
FK Jablonec's away record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.25 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Pardubice or FK Jablonec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pardubice have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, FK Jablonec in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
FK Jablonec go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FK Jablonec won 3-0 on 16 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pardubice have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FK Jablonec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Pardubice
1
Draws
7
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and FK Jablonec?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 2, FK Jablonec have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Pardubice 0-2 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and FK Jablonec?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 75%, FK Jablonec 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Pardubice) and 44% (FK Jablonec).
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec in 38%; FK Jablonec in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play FK Jablonec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Pardubice's recent matches and 25% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pardubice vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Pardubice's recent games and 44% of FK Jablonec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FK Jablonec cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Pardubice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec beat Pardubice 0-2 at Stadion Arnosta Kostala, Regular Season - 2, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.50 xG and FK Jablonec 1.33 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Pardubice fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 1.00 / defence 0.98 against FK Jablonec attack 0.99 / defence 1.01, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 41% | Draw 26% | FK Jablonec 33%, with Pardubice to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual FK Jablonec win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 54%, FK Jablonec 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pardubice 1.33 PPG, FK Jablonec 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FK Jablonec win broke the near-deadlock. Pardubice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.