Pardubice 0-2 České Budějovice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pardubice at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pardubice vs České Budějovice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Ďolíček plays host to Pardubice versus České Budějovice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Sunday 31 July 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Pardubice have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Pardubice haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Pardubice's home record at Stadion Ďolíček: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Ďolíček this season.
České Budějovice (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. České Budějovice haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, České Budějovice have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Pardubice. A 0.80 PPG lead over České Budějovice (1.70 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Pardubice 0W, České Budějovice 1W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2022, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Pardubice half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
České Budějovice half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 53% versus České Budějovice 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 59% | České Budějovice 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.52 xG and České Budějovice 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.961 / defence 1.039 | České Budějovice attack 0.980 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.144. Data: 30 Pardubice games / 30 České Budějovice games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Pardubice 44% | Draw 27% | České Budějovice 28%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | České Budějovice 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pardubice are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pardubice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Pardubice 40% | České Budějovice 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs České Budějovice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Jul 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 44% | Draw 27% | České Budějovice 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Pardubice 1.52 / České Budějovice 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.961 / def 1.039 | České Budějovice attack 0.980 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.446 / away 1.144 • Poisson stance: Pardubice (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.17
České Budějovice xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs České Budějovice kick off?
Pardubice vs České Budějovice kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 31 July 2022 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs České Budějovice?
Pardubice 0 - 2 České Budějovice.
Where is Pardubice vs České Budějovice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Pardubice vs České Budějovice part of?
Pardubice vs České Budějovice is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs České Budějovice?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 44% chance of winning, České Budějovice a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Pardubice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs České Budějovice?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Pardubice and České Budějovice will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs České Budějovice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and České Budějovice?
Record (2 meetings): Pardubice 0W | Draws 1 | České Budějovice 1W.
What form are Pardubice and České Budějovice in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Pardubice (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Pardubice's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against České Budějovice's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. Flip it around — České Budějovice's attack (0.98x) against Pardubice's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pardubice Win
44%
2.25
27%
3.65
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.68
1.17
České Budějovice xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
22%
4.57
Win to Nil
14%
7.21
6%
16.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.1 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs České Budějovice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Pardubice and České Budějovice expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.17 for České Budějovice, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs České Budějovice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pardubice come into this having played 32 games, going 9W 8D 15L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-W. Pardubice haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, České Budějovice sit at 1.12 PPG from 32 outings (9W 9D 14L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five. České Budějovice haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Pardubice against 1.12 for České Budějovice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Pardubice's home form reads 3W 7D 5L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.07 PPG return.
Away from home, České Budějovice have taken 0.40 points per game from 15 outings (0W 6D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of České Budějovice's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pardubice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Pardubice are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; České Budějovice are on 1.31 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Pre-Season
České Budějovice
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and České Budějovice in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 9W 8D 15L in their last 32 games (1.09 PPG), while České Budějovice have gone 9W 9D 14L in their last 32 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or České Budějovice away?
Pardubice's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.07 PPG; České Budějovice away: 0.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pardubice have gone 2W 3D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against České Budějovice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Pardubice
3
Draws
3
České Budějovice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and České Budějovice?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 4, České Budějovice have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and České Budějovice last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2025, when Pardubice 1-0 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and České Budějovice?
Pardubice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 40%, České Budějovice 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Pardubice) and 60% (České Budějovice).
On the defensive side: Pardubice keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Pardubice have failed to score in 40% of games; České Budějovice in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / České Budějovice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play České Budějovice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Pardubice's recent matches and 60% of České Budějovice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pardubice vs České Budějovice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Pardubice's recent games and 60% of České Budějovice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and České Budějovice tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, České Budějovice in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
České Budějovice cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Pardubice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
České Budějovice beat Pardubice 0-2 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 1, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.52 xG and České Budějovice 1.17 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Pardubice fell 1.5 short of their projected output. České Budějovice outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.96 / defence 1.04 against České Budějovice attack 0.98 / defence 1.09, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 44% | Draw 27% | České Budějovice 28%, with Pardubice to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual České Budějovice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 59%, České Budějovice 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
České Budějovice's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pardubice 1.09 PPG, České Budějovice 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the České Budějovice win broke the near-deadlock. Pardubice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward. České Budějovice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.