🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Pardubice edge out České Budějovice 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pardubice beat České Budějovice 1-0 at CFIG Arena, Relegation Round - 3, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.53 xG and České Budějovice 0.77 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.78 / defence 1.00 against České Budějovice attack 0.64 / defence 1.45, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pardubice 55% | Draw 26% | České Budějovice 19%, with Pardubice to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 40%, České Budějovice 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pardubice's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.

České Budějovice's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pardubice 0.88 PPG, České Budějovice 0.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pardubice win broke the near-deadlock. Pardubice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. České Budějovice (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.45 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights