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Shock result as Dukla Praha defy the odds to beat Pardubice 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dukla Praha beat Pardubice 0-1 at CFIG Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.05 xG and Dukla Praha 0.75 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Pardubice fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.68 / defence 1.06 against Dukla Praha attack 0.62 / defence 1.08, drawn from 55/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pardubice 40% | Draw 37% | Dukla Praha 24%, with Pardubice to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a Dukla Praha win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 44%, Dukla Praha 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pardubice's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 60% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Dukla Praha's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pardubice 0.64 PPG, Dukla Praha 0.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dukla Praha win broke the near-deadlock. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights