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Poisson model rates Pardubice at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pardubice vs Chrudim fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

CFIG Arena plays host to Pardubice versus Chrudim in Czech Liga, Relegation Round. Kick-off: Wednesday 28 May 2025 at 17:00 UTC.

Current Form

Pardubice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Pardubice's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at CFIG Arena this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.24 xG and Chrudim 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.793 / defence 1.000 | Chrudim attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.203. Pardubice's attack strength of 0.793 is below the league average — the 1.24 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 60 Pardubice games / 0 Chrudim games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Pardubice 41% | Draw 29% | Chrudim 30%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Chrudim 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Pardubice at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pardubice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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