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Pardubice and Bohemians 1905 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion Arnosta Kostala, Regular Season - 7, as Pardubice and Bohemians 1905 drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.40 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.53 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.92 / defence 1.38 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.92 / defence 1.12, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pardubice 35% | Draw 25% | Bohemians 1905 41%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 44%, Bohemians 1905 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pardubice's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.

Bohemians 1905's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Bohemians 1905 arrived the stronger side — 1.18 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights