Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pardubice at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pardubice host Baník Ostrava at Stadion Arnosta Kostala in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 February 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pardubice stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pardubice's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Stadion Arnosta Kostala this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Baník Ostrava — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baník Ostrava's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Baník Ostrava are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 10 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Pardubice, 5 for Baník Ostrava and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2026, ended 2–1 with Pardubice winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Pardubice in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Baník Ostrava in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 71% versus Baník Ostrava 34%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 56% | Baník Ostrava 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.74 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.873 / defence 1.104 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.834 / defence 1.400. League average goals — home 1.420 / away 1.261. Baník Ostrava bring a strong defensive rating of 1.400 — this is suppressing Pardubice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 Pardubice games / 39 Baník Ostrava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 49% | Draw 27% | Baník Ostrava 24%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Baník Ostrava 4.17. Pardubice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pardubice as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Baník Ostrava (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pardubice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pardubice 80% | Baník Ostrava 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadion Arnosta Kostala • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Feb 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 49% | Draw 27% | Baník Ostrava 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Pardubice 1.74 / Baník Ostrava 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.873 / def 1.104 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.834 / def 1.400 | league avg home 1.420 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Pardubice (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Baník Ostrava xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 February 2027 at Stadion Arnosta Kostala.
Where is Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Arnosta Kostala.
What competition is Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 49% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Pardubice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Pardubice and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Baník Ostrava?
Record (10 meetings): Pardubice 3W | Draws 2 | Baník Ostrava 5W.
What form are Pardubice and Baník Ostrava in?
Pardubice (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Baník Ostrava (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Pardubice's attack at 0.87x the league average against Baník Ostrava's defence at 1.40x — combine the two and it projects 1.74 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Baník Ostrava's attack versus Pardubice's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pardubice Win
49%
2.04
27%
3.67
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.90
1.16
Baník Ostrava xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
18%
5.67
Win to Nil
15%
6.50
4%
23.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.1 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.16 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pardubice's recent record stands at 14W 10D 17L from 41 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baník Ostrava, meanwhile, have gone 11W 8D 22L across 41 games — 1.00 PPG, with W-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pardubice on 1.27 PPG, Baník Ostrava on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Pardubice have managed 6W 6D 8L from 20 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Baník Ostrava's away record stands at 4W 4D 12L across 20 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Pardubice are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.05 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pardubice have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Blended
Baník Ostrava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 14W 10D 17L in their last 41 games (1.27 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 11W 8D 22L in their last 41 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Pardubice's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.20 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pardubice and Baník Ostrava runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 13 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Pardubice go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Sep 2022, when Baník Ostrava won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pardubice's record when hosting Baník Ostrava specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Pardubice
2
Draws
5
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Baník Ostrava?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 3, Baník Ostrava have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2026, when Baník Ostrava 1-2 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Baník Ostrava?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 75%, Baník Ostrava 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Pardubice) and 55% (Baník Ostrava).
On the defensive side: Baník Ostrava in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Baník Ostrava?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Pardubice's games and 40% of Baník Ostrava's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Pardubice's recent games and 55% of Baník Ostrava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Baník Ostrava tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Baník Ostrava in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.