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Prediction vindicated as Baník Ostrava edge out Pardubice 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Baník Ostrava beat Pardubice 0-1 at Stadion Arnosta Kostala, Regular Season - 5, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.05 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.25 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Pardubice fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.90 / defence 1.25 against Baník Ostrava attack 0.80 / defence 0.90, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pardubice 29% | Draw 32% | Baník Ostrava 39%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 43%, Baník Ostrava 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pardubice's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Baník Ostrava's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.73. Form held, and they took the win. Pardubice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights