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Mlada Boleslav cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Zlin.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mlada Boleslav beat Zlin 3-1 at Lokotrans Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.14 xG and Zlin 1.65 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Mlada Boleslav beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 0.91 / defence 1.51 against Zlin attack 0.83 / defence 0.91, drawn from 47/17 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 25% | Draw 27% | Zlin 48%, with Zlin to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Mlada Boleslav win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 71%, Zlin 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.

Zlin's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Zlin arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.76. Form was overturned, with Mlada Boleslav winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.62 average — tighter than their form line. Zlin (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights