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Prediction vindicated as Mlada Boleslav edge out Teplice 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mlada Boleslav beat Teplice 1-0 at Lokotrans Aréna, Relegation Round - 2, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.11 xG and Teplice 1.01 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Teplice landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 0.79 / defence 1.05 against Teplice attack 0.80 / defence 1.03, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 37% | Draw 30% | Teplice 32%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 60%, Teplice 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (65 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Teplice's trading profile (65 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mlada Boleslav 1.28 PPG, Teplice 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mlada Boleslav win broke the near-deadlock. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. Teplice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights