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Prediction vindicated as Mlada Boleslav edge out Teplice 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mlada Boleslav beat Teplice 2-1 at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 21, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.48 xG and Teplice 1.00 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 1.04 / defence 0.97 against Teplice attack 0.88 / defence 0.97, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 48% | Draw 27% | Teplice 25%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 59%, Teplice 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Teplice's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mlada Boleslav 1.37 PPG, Teplice 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mlada Boleslav win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights