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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Sparta Praha edge out Mlada Boleslav 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sparta Praha beat Mlada Boleslav 1-2 at Lokotrans Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.05 xG and Sparta Praha 2.16 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 0.95 / defence 1.61 against Sparta Praha attack 1.08 / defence 0.88, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 15% | Draw 24% | Sparta Praha 61%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 62%, Sparta Praha 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Sparta Praha's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights