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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Mlada Boleslav and Slovan Liberec share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mlada Boleslav and Slovan Liberec finished level at 3-3 at Lokotrans Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.06 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.36 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Mlada Boleslav beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Slovan Liberec outscored their 1.36 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 0.92 / defence 1.00 against Slovan Liberec attack 1.06 / defence 0.89, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 29% | Draw 27% | Slovan Liberec 44%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 59%, Slovan Liberec 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Slovan Liberec's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mlada Boleslav 1.19 PPG, Slovan Liberec 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights