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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Mlada Boleslav and Slovácko share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mlada Boleslav and Slovácko finished level at 2-2 at Lokotrans Aréna, Relegation Round - 5, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.35 xG and Slovácko 1.01 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Slovácko outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 0.81 / defence 1.05 against Slovácko attack 0.80 / defence 1.23, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 44% | Draw 28% | Slovácko 28%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 61%, Slovácko 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Slovácko's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mlada Boleslav 1.26 PPG, Slovácko 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Slovácko (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights