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Dominant Sigma Olomouc run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Mlada Boleslav.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sigma Olomouc beat Mlada Boleslav 1-4 at Lokotrans Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.15 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.52 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc outscored their 1.52 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 1.04 / defence 1.51 against Sigma Olomouc attack 0.84 / defence 0.95, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 25% | Draw 33% | Sigma Olomouc 42%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 62%, Sigma Olomouc 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mlada Boleslav 1.06 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sigma Olomouc win broke the near-deadlock. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights