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Sigma Olomouc cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Mlada Boleslav.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sigma Olomouc beat Mlada Boleslav 1-3 at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 19, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.70 xG and Sigma Olomouc 0.97 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc outscored their 0.97 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 1.09 / defence 0.80 against Sigma Olomouc attack 1.01 / defence 1.04, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 53% | Draw 27% | Sigma Olomouc 20%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Sigma Olomouc win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 60%, Sigma Olomouc 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mlada Boleslav 1.42 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sigma Olomouc win broke the near-deadlock. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights