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Dominant Plzen run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Mlada Boleslav.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Plzen beat Mlada Boleslav 0-5 at Lokotrans Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.67 xG and Plzen 1.84 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Mlada Boleslav fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Plzen outscored their 1.84 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 1.22 / defence 1.23 against Plzen attack 1.22 / defence 1.01, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 35% | Draw 23% | Plzen 42%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 64%, Plzen 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Plzen's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.15. That form edge translated into the three points. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights