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Plzen cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Mlada Boleslav.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Plzen beat Mlada Boleslav 0-2 at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 24, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.24 xG and Plzen 1.31 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Mlada Boleslav fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 1.05 / defence 0.97 against Plzen attack 1.10 / defence 0.79, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 34% | Draw 28% | Plzen 38%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 62%, Plzen 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Plzen's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.40. Form held, and they took the win. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward. Plzen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights