🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Mlada Boleslav cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Pardubice.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mlada Boleslav beat Pardubice 2-0 at Lokotrans Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.62 xG and Pardubice 1.55 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Pardubice landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 1.11 / defence 1.15 against Pardubice attack 1.20 / defence 1.08, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 38% | Draw 26% | Pardubice 35%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 63%, Pardubice 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Pardubice's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mlada Boleslav 1.08 PPG, Pardubice 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mlada Boleslav win broke the near-deadlock. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.63 average — tighter than their form line. Pardubice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights