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Karviná cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Mlada Boleslav.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Karviná beat Mlada Boleslav 2-4 at Lokotrans Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.46 xG and Karviná 1.74 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Karviná outscored their 1.74 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 0.98 / defence 1.34 against Karviná attack 1.13 / defence 1.25, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 30% | Draw 29% | Karviná 41%, with Karviná to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 61%, Karviná 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Karviná's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mlada Boleslav 1.09 PPG, Karviná 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Karviná win broke the near-deadlock. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Karviná (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights