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Poisson rates Mlada Boleslav at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 13 as Mlada Boleslav welcome Hradec Králové to Lokotrans Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 31 October 2026 at 16:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Mlada Boleslav stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Mlada Boleslav haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

At home at Lokotrans Arena, Mlada Boleslav have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Czech Liga games this season, Hradec Králové have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Hradec Králové haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

On the road, Hradec Králové have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Hradec Králové are 0.60 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H Record

The fixture history tells a clear story: Mlada Boleslav have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 10 past contests while Hradec Králové have managed just 2 wins.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The historical record gives Mlada Boleslav a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

In-Play Data

Mlada Boleslav trading profile (35 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Hradec Králové trading profile (35 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mlada Boleslav 60% versus Hradec Králové 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 60% | Hradec Králové 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 1.34 xG and Hradec Králové 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.027 / defence 0.990 | Hradec Králové attack 1.024 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.204. Data: 30 Mlada Boleslav games / 30 Hradec Králové games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 39% | Draw 28% | Hradec Králové 33%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Hradec Králové 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

Mlada Boleslav dominate the H2H record, yet Hradec Králové are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.

On the Poisson output, Mlada Boleslav are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hradec Králové (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mlada Boleslav offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Mlada Boleslav 60% | Hradec Králové 50% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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