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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Mlada Boleslav edge out Hradec Králové 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mlada Boleslav beat Hradec Králové 3-2 at Lokotrans Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.57 xG and Hradec Králové 1.50 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Mlada Boleslav beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 1.09 / defence 1.18 against Hradec Králové attack 1.03 / defence 1.07, drawn from 33/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 39% | Draw 25% | Hradec Králové 36%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 63%, Hradec Králové 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Hradec Králové's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mlada Boleslav 1.11 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mlada Boleslav win broke the near-deadlock. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights