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Dominant Mlada Boleslav run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Hradec Králové.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mlada Boleslav beat Hradec Králové 3-0 at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 17, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.06 xG and Hradec Králové 0.83 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Mlada Boleslav beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hradec Králové landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 0.99 / defence 0.97 against Hradec Králové attack 0.73 / defence 0.73, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 38% | Draw 36% | Hradec Králové 26%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 60%, Hradec Králové 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Hradec Králové's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mlada Boleslav 1.32 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mlada Boleslav win broke the near-deadlock. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights