🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Dukla Praha defy the odds to beat Mlada Boleslav 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dukla Praha beat Mlada Boleslav 1-2 at Lokotrans Arena, Relegation Group - 3, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.42 xG and Dukla Praha 0.96 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Dukla Praha outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 1.06 / defence 1.00 against Dukla Praha attack 0.80 / defence 0.97, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 47% | Draw 29% | Dukla Praha 25%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Dukla Praha win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 60%, Dukla Praha 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (67 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Dukla Praha's trading profile (67 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mlada Boleslav 1.16 PPG, Dukla Praha 0.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dukla Praha win broke the near-deadlock. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.74 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights