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Shock result as Dukla Praha defy the odds to beat Mlada Boleslav 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dukla Praha beat Mlada Boleslav 2-3 at Lokotrans Aréna, Relegation Round - 3, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.21 xG and Dukla Praha 0.97 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Dukla Praha outscored their 0.97 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 0.80 / defence 1.05 against Dukla Praha attack 0.77 / defence 1.11, drawn from 60/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 41% | Draw 29% | Dukla Praha 29%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Dukla Praha win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 56%, Dukla Praha 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Dukla Praha's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mlada Boleslav 1.25 PPG, Dukla Praha 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dukla Praha win broke the near-deadlock. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.69 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights